SPH - Initiation of Coverage - Technical Buy

SPH is Asia's leading media conglomerate, with increased diversification into new media to buttress its ailing print arms. It publishes flagship publications The Straits Times and the Business Times. It also publishes Lian He Zao Bao, Lian He Wan Bao, Shin Min Daily News, The New Paper and various Indian and Malay publications which boast tremendous viewership within Singapore

 In its earnings update for 1QFY21 ended Nov 2020, SPH reported that total circulation increased by 2% YOY with Digital Circulation up 42% YOY, accounting for 52% of total circulation, overtaking print. Advertising revenue has improved also thanks to a pick-up sentiment towards the end of 2020 while print and digital revenue dropped 36% and 8% YOY as companies reduce advertisement and promotions activities in light of a sluggish economy.

With most of the SG stock market not doing well, it is heartening to see SPH rise by more than 9% on Friday - which is rather unusual - such that it trades at between 0.65x of Book Value. SPH was also 5th on the SGX Top Volume charts on Friday and as can be seen from the chart, there is significant volume spike.

Entry: $1.36-$1.38

First Target price: $1.45-1.48

Second Target Price: $1.55-1.60 (CIMB projection of $1.60 if Coupang IPO goes ahead and based on Dividend Discount Model if SPH owns 1% of Coupang)

As the situation evolves, I will expound more on the fundamentals but the following report will suffice for now.

SgHuat members-only WhatsApp group was alerted of this trade when SPH was trading at $1.35. 

Investment thesis:

1. SPH's substantial past investment (as part of its venture capitalist arm) in an e-commerce and on-demand food delivery company Coupang in mid-2014 via a Special Purpose Vehicle. Coupang was valued at US$5 bn in June 2015 after SoftBank invested US$1 bn. It was founded in 2010 and has flourished rapidly to a planned S$66 bn listing on NYSE. Touted as the "Amazon" of S. Korea, it captures 25% of total online retail transaction volume in Korea in early 2020 and is South Korea's second largest B2C logistics company.  Coupang has demonstrated increased revenue (72% CAGR from 2018 to 2020) and operating loss has dwindled about 50% over the same period (US$1.1 bn to US$0.47 bn). To preserve earnings growth, Coupang has invested in various projects including Coupang Play, which is a video-streaming service as well as Coupang Logistics so as to bring its fulfilment network in-house (which will increase profit margins). Coupang Media Group, an in-house advertising platform, was also established recently.

2. As SPH has planted 40+ seeds as part of its venture capitalist arm ($100 mn venture capital fund; $5 mn SGD as maximum cheque size, with S$1-2 mn as the typical investment quantum), we expect upcoming positive catalysts to push SPH price back to its pre-COVID valuation and thus SPH can be thought of also as a long-term investment. SPH Ventures invests in early-growth technology companies globally which focuses on Series A portfolio companies. 

3. Pan-Asian e-commerce giant Qoo10 has bagged US$82 mn in a series A funding round led by SPH. Participants include eBay, Saban Capital, UVM 2 Venture Investments, Brookside Capital and Oak Investment Partners.

4. Well-diversified congolomerate. What SPH stands for: SgCarMart, FastJobs, SPH Reit (Clementi Mall, Paragon & Australian retail assets), Student Castle Oxford & Brighton, Woodleigh Residences (integrated development), etc.

Investment/Trading Risks:

1. In the second-half trading session, volume waned about 30%, though SPH continued to climb to 1.40. We are therefore expecting a significant re-tracement coming up, or an abortion of SPH's rise. Therefore, short-term traders are advised to watch market technical indicators for possible reversal of the uptrend. This can include a shooting star signal formed on the 1 hourly or 4 hourly charts.

2. Adverse profit guidance due to weaker or weaker than expected performance of the SPH print arms. Unfavourable market reaction to SPH announcement of its investment quantum in Coupang. Unexpectedly huge secular decline in SPH's print arms,  which is unable to be offset by gains in digital circulation, resulting in further worsening of PNL position.

3. Short-term risks which contra-players and short-term traders have to look out for, viz, profit-taking or sell-on-news effect which will mean an immediate re-pricing of SPH back to $1.25-1.30 as we wait for further announcements.

Further Readings:

Coverage on Coupang IPO on The Straits Times

Audited Results for Year Ended Aug 2020

1Q FY2021 Earnings Update

CIMB Coverage 

Investment Quantum in Coupang

Disclosures:

I disclose that I have a position of 5000 shares of SPH at $1.35.

Malicious Inducement to Trade - a Penny Stock Syndicate in Singapore & various malicious actors in HKG

 SGX RegCo and MAS are possibly investigating a Telegram Penny Stock Syndicate which has about 5000 members currently for market manipulation. Why I think so is due to the fact that I am unaware of any other Telegram groups which are of the scale which is capable of manipulating the market and also based on my observations of their calls as well as various  possibly incriminatory past statements  (screenshotted).  Of course, this is my personal opinion. While this has been old news, sgHuat will take this opportunity to warn members further of such a syndicate as numerous of our course attendees have lost huge sums of money following their malicious calls at sky-high prices. We will want to prevent future incidents.

SgHuat would like to warn all members to be careful when trading securities, particularly low-float and low-cap stocks - especially those with low liquidity. An example of a recent pump & dump that was possibly perpetuated and promoted by the syndicate involves VividThree. This needs further investigation.

Please see the following links on the SGX website. Indeed, Telegram chat group was very specifically mentioned!

https://www.sgx.com/media-centre/20201210-sgx-regco-warns-public-pump-and-dump-activities-exploiting-telegram-chats-and

https://www.sgx.com/media-centre/20210202-mas-and-sgx-beware-risks-related-trading-incited-online-discussions 

The main perpetrator, "Mystic Dax" as well as his cronies, the likes of "Furion", "Wayne", "G.E.M",  etc (who might even be the same person!) are possibly in breach of Section 199 and/or Section 200 of the Securities and Futures Act ("SFA") if they are involved in pump and dump activities. This needs further investigation. We hope that MAS and SGX investigates and sheds some clarity as my members have lost money in these dubious activities.

Section 199 of the SFA prohibits a person from knowingly or recklessly making or disseminating false or misleading information and statements that are likely to induce subscription of or the sale or purchase of securities, securities-based derivatives contracts or CIS units or which are likely to affect the market price of these capital markets products.

Section 200 of the SFA involves a higher level of mens era, viz fraudulent intention, in addition to recklessness or knowledge. Section 200 of the SFA deals with the situation where a person fraudulently induces other persons to deal in a capital markets product. The accused must have made or published a statement, promise or forecast that was misleading either recklessly or with knowledge that it was misleading.

It is to be noted that both Section 199 and Section 200 of the SFA do not require that there had actually been a price movement in favour of the respondents. You can read more here.

SgHuat abides by all laws and regulations in force at all material time. In fact, we primarily deal with blue chips with high market capitalisation, which is very difficult to pump and dump. We would like to caution all members of this Singapore Penny Syndicate as many of our members have lost money following their possibly malicious calls. We would also take this opportunity to caution all members that there are Hong Kong Stock Syndicates lurking in our Telegram chat group as well as other chat groups, which often pester our members to buy HK securities. They are also involved in pump and dump activities so please exercise utmost caution - it is best to just ignore the Penny Stock group and the HKG stock promoters.

We will advise all members to trade and invest safely and rationally; seek independent financial advice if required. If you have not already joined our Telegram group, please join us by clicking here.

As Singapore's largest Telegram community of traders and investors, we seek to lead by example and pursue a higher level of critical thinking & competence among retail traders so that we will all huat together.

Wishing everyone a prosperous Lunar New Year!

Medtecs - Continuing to run to $1.2-$1.35? A technical view.

 

Note: This is a follow-up to the earlier buy signal for Medtecs - which saw Medtecs reaching a day-high for profit-takers who were interested (day-high of $1.17)

Medtecs recently broke out after the classical cup & handle formation.  However, as this break-out was on relatively low volume, the price movement did not follow through and there was heavy selling on Friday, pushing the price down to a low of $1.10 before buyers supported it back at $1.13 to close at $1.13.

From a technical standpoint, Medtecs could have forming a bull-flag pattern but the next few days' volume will be crucial for us to gain a better understanding of the sentiment for Medtecs.

With the overall market being very bearish, it is no wonder that Medtecs was unable to rally strongly after the breakout and indeed, general market behaviour may inform us of Medtecs's future price movement. (note that Medtecs, some think, is often inversely co-related with blue chip performance since this is typically viewed as an alternative hedge).

As far as the technicals are concerned, it is likely for Medtecs to test the 50EMA to prove its uptrend and that will be a great area-of-value to purchase this security for trading purposes. With Medtecs supernormal earnings coming up, it is likely that the uptrend is just about to begin. (The counter-view being that all this has already been priced in since the gap has more or less been closed with a day high of $1.17).

Has Medtecs already reached its highest price in the months to come? All will depend on the company's reporting. Since the earnings report is likely to be out in March/April, and this is a pretty long runway, it seems that the most justified price-action will be for Medtecs to re-test $1.10 again (or even $1.02) and consolidate for a while before it attempts to break the $1.17 new resistance level formed.

Nonetheless, as of Friday, the uptrend is intact on the Ichimoku cloud system on the weekly, daily and 4 hourly time-frames. In fact, Medtecs has pushed above the cloud on the weekly time-frame, though there is a long upper wig due to the selldown from $1.17 all the way to close at $1.13.

Time will tell. As for now, I have exited all positions in this security.

Will observe the price movement of $Medtecs Int'l closely to make a safer decision.

Key levels to watch:

$1.20 - $1.35 - profit-taking region with high resistance

$1.17 - resistance

$1.10 - support (Tenken line on Ichimoku cloud + Key pivot + Fibonacci Retracement Level)

$1.08 - support (Kejun line on Ichimoku cloud system + Fibonacci Retracement Level)

$1.02 - support

$1 - psychological support

Technical Buy: $Medtecs (SGX: 546)

$Medtecs Int'l (SGX: 546) Target Price: $1.24-$1.30 (subject to upwards/downwards revision - we could be seeing as high as $1.5-$1.8 depending on sentiments)

Medtecs has broken out of the $1.07/$1.08 resistance region today at about 1 PM. Inner circle members were alerted to this and we watched Medtecs with watchful eyes. Members were earlier also alerted to  start to accumulate Medtecs at the low $1.0x series and $0.9x series. 

Some of us bought Medtecs at break-out ($1.08). Others bought at $1.02/$1.03 and added more to their position at $1.08 when it broke out. Others preferred to just accumulate low ($1.02/1.03) and ride all the way to $1.5.

Indeed, the insider transaction on 22 December, with Medtecs CEO William Yang buying as much as $0.5 million worth of Medtecs shares, foreshadowed this share price movement: see here for the SGX report.

Technical Positives:

1. Daily RSI is currently at 64 so there is some room to run.

2. OBV has been showing strong & continuous accumulation for many months.

3. The current break-out completes the cup and handle formation.

4. Volume and candles look good from a technical standpoint and 50 EMA begins to serve as support on the 4 hourly chart.

Upcoming Catalysts:

1. Supernormal results releasing soon. It is expected that Q4 PATMI and EPS will be even better than previous quarters.

2. Earnings sustainability plan moving forward, including further news on their US masks factory

3. Supernormal dividends (earlier dividend was a pittance - hence the upcoming special dividend is highly anticipated - this will possibly mean that Medtecs will be viewed more as a dividend stock or long-term investment, especially if viewed together with an earnings sustainability roadmap - see Point 2)

4. Possible inclusion into SG Mainboard (currently Medtecs is Catalist) after it had been inserted into MSCI small cap index recently in November 2020. Medtecs noted that  a listing on the mainboard would enhance the image of the company and provide greater visibility and recognition in the market. Indeed, Medtecs said this is "particularly critical" amid the Covid-19 pandemic, where there could be pockets of opportunity for the company to tap in order to expand its business operations.

5. News of more COVID strains and COVID exacerbations in other countries and/or Singapore. Some highlight that new COVID super-strains may reduce vaccine effectiveness.

6. News of vaccine inefficacy or even adverse effects (Naturally produced antibody seems to last only ~ 3-8 months since COVID cases have started to report re-infection - more research is needed but preliminary data shows that at least one vaccine should be efficacious for at least 3 months. Read more here on getting COVID twice.

Vaccine administration details for maximum efficacy have not been ironed out yet.

7. Impediments to vaccination schedules (eg, in America- to date, less than 10% of population vaccinated) - see, for instance, winter delays in America. More delays to vaccine schedule means more strains in light of more mutations in human hosts.

8. Increased analyst coverage

Possible Surprises:

1. Accretive M&A 

2. Announcement of recurring mega-contracts and partnerships with governments

Risks to Share Price:

1. Major risk will be sales of shares by substantial shareholders or insiders.

2. High RSI means possible corrections as the price rallies up further into the $1.3 - $1.5 region

3. In our view, vaccine and vaccine distribution news has already been factored and priced in.

Recent News:

1. Medtecs donating millions of face masks to France

2. Medtecs developing their own in-house brand masks (Medtecs and CoverU) rather than just providing OEM masks

3. Drastic ramping up of production via outsourcing of non-critical components, 24/7 production and investment in automation - more than 30% increase in output for new and existing customers

4. As a world leader of PPE, contracts secured for PPE throughout 2021

To read more, please click here.

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GHY Culture (Stock Code on SGX: XJB)

Target Price: $0.80, $0.85, $1.08 (Trade Management: exit in 3 tranches)

Current Price: $0.75

About GHY

- Recent IPO stock, IPO-ed at 66 cents

- Drama and concert production company, with focus in Singapore & China

- Many works are in the pipeline and have been completed in 2020

- Recent CEO purchase of shares (1.08 million shares in December 2020, at about 67 cents)

- Company swung to net profits in 2019, and it is expected that 2020 net profits will increase further (due to continued production within China) with positive Earnings Per Share.

- Well-diversified business, with three arms: TV & Film Production Business, Concert Production Business, Talent Management Business & Costumes/Props/Makeup Business.

- Earnings on online video platforms experienced CAGR of more than 20% in the last 5 years. Company is actively looking to diversify into the online space further. (For short-form video, CAGR is more than 150%). Note that this is a high-growth and stable market due to China's emerging middle class & the recurrence of income as a result of the nature of the production (drama series).

Upcoming catalysts

1. Resumption of concerts, particularly Jay Chou's contracts - pent-up demand in the Asian markets

2. UOB KH may decide to scale up its position in GHY Culture further (initiation of coverage: 19 January) (note: UOB Alpha Pick's time-frame is 1-3 months and not the usual 12-month investment horizon)

3. Contract announcements

4. Wider analyst coverage

5. Earnings report should not be too bad, given the focus on China drama series in 2020

Investment Risks

1. Exacerbation of COVID19 such that concerts are unable to resume as planned  (However, note that the company is well-diversified into the online space and thus might be minimally affected - nonetheless, a worsening of the COVID situation in Asia could lead to adverse investor sentiment)

2. Non-exclusivity of contracts with top celebrities such as Jay Chou may mean competition threat. However, due to the long working relationship with Jay Chou, this is rather unlikely.

Suggested Entry Points

1. 75 cents 

2. 72 cents which is the next support and AOV (Area of Value)

Suggested Stop Loss

About 68 cents (IPO price + 2 cents)

Technicals

Pivot points on 4 hourly chart have been marked.

Buyers in control, with 50 EMA likely to slant upwards soon and to serve as support.

Investor Brief: Why Sarine Tech (U77) still remains a buy at this valuation

Polished diamond prices are up 5.1% from their lowest point in March, putting them at their highest level in nearly a year and a half, according to a gauge compiled by the International Diamond Exchange.

Target Price: $1.3 (rationale: with gross profits expected to recover to 2017/2018, we believe valuation will ultimately re-approach 2017/2018 levels) 

Sarine Tech Weekly Charts

What does Sarine Tech do?

(Source: Sarine Tech investor presentation slides)

1.  Increased online sales: Bain Consulting report (see below for links)

There could be further upside to diamond sales as the millennials (as well as the Gen Ys and Baby Boomers) are engaged more over time - COVID19 lock-downs may be protracted and people more likely flock to online e-commerce sites to purchase diamonds.

2. Macroeconomic Factors

Key economic drivers which can boost diamond industry recovery include year-end bonuses, festive season, inconvenience and unavailability of travel (thus people spending their money on luxuries like diamonds for loved ones), upcoming Valentine's Day without the possibility of travel and expected macro-economic recovery in leading economies.

3. Easing of Selling Pressure on Daily Charts + Short Volume remains low

What we think is not important. What the market thinks and sentiment is more important. To that effect, SGX short-sell volume for the U77 counter has remained below 10% and on the daily charts, selling pressure has eased tremendously.  Short-sell volume is empirically co-related to stronger stock prices and if SS volume can remain below 20%, this is a positive indicator.

Feb 10, short volume: 10%

Feb 9, short volume 5%

Feb 8, short volume 7%

4. Analyst Coverage on U77: UOB KH

Though un-rated without TP, further coverage possible. See the report here.

5. Technical Indicators suggest that the uptrend is intact

On 8 Feb, sell signal was issued on the daily charts due to moderate volume sell-down. Despite this, from 9 Feb to 11 Feb, Sarine's price has remained supported above 61 cents. Volume has decreased considerably indicating that the stock has entered low-volume consolidation phase and profit-taking as well as short-sell interest is over. Buyers are re-entering this gem, and indeed, in the past few trading days, we notice that prices did not even test the key psychological support of 60 cents. On the charts, higher lows are being formed and a  bull-flag pattern can be seen. Likely looking at a few days of consolidation before attempting to test 70 cents again.

On the daily and 4 hourly charts, prices have maintained above the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud system in recent days, indicating a strong uptrend.

What are the weaknesses on the charts? Prices failed to successfully re-test previous high of 70 cents and only reached 67.5 cents. 10 Feb daily candle is also ugly. We need to see a more buyers-in-control situation within this consolidation range to propose a more confident technical buy.

6. Earnings report can serve as upcoming catalyst

7. Cash position remains strong, which can inspire investor confidence

2019, cash and cash equivalents increased from $16 mil to $18 mil. 

8. Sarine Tech is well-positioned in all stages of the diamond trade

This indicates well-diversification of the value chain, so that it is able to adjust accordingly to any potential demand spikes in different parts of the  diamond industry value chain.

9. Consistent Dividend Payouts and expectation of Upcoming Dividends

This can inspire investor confidence and attract long-term retail and institutional investors who are willing to ride up the recovery of this multi-bagger stock.

10. Company has strong fundamentals

Other key financial metrics:

PATMI consistently positive, with 2016 showing Sarine recording $18 mil, swinging into negative in 2019 due to a slump in diamond prices, and then showing some signs of recovery in 2020 into positive region.

EPS has decreased from 5.1 in 2016 to -0.4 in 2019 before showing gradual recovery to 0.3 in 1H2020 despite COVID situation. Expected that 2H2020 will be spectacular given pent-up demand for jewellery following macroeconomic recovery.

While 1H2020 P/E ratio is at over 60, this is indicative of investor confidence for a swing into huge profitability for this company with a long history of innovation and resilience, dating back to 1995. This means it has survived the 1998 and 2008 financial crises - well-intact and with cushy cash reserves.

Further Readings:

Hong Kong Polished Trading Recovers

Signet, a prominent diamond retailer listed on the NYSE (NYSE:SIG), has recorded Bullish action, pushing up from $40 to $44 in the last 3 days - Buying up volume on 10 Feb more significant than sell-down volume on 9 Feb

Russian diamond supplier Airosa rough sales increased, CEO says that demand is increasing in US and China

Bain and AWDC released its report, indicating resilient recovery in 2021

Diamond prices regain their sparkle: WSJ

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Joining the Team

 SgHuat is expanding!

We have decided to incorporate an education company in February. Details will be provided once the name has been approved.

The Academy will have two arms: the first educational arm will provide educational services related to trading and investment as well as financial management. The second educational arm will be focussed on mainstream education system subjects such as English, Math & the Sciences for students and adults alike. There will also be tertiary-level supplementary classes available pertaining to the Biological Sciences, Accounting and Law.

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This blog serves as an addendum to the @sgHuatAnalysis Telegram group, which already provides Fundamental and Technical Analysis. The blog will carry more lengthy analyses and commentaries; deep-dives and analysis into certain financial securities in the Singapore, HKG or USA markets.

The aims of this blog are:

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